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An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change
Huang, Haixiao; Khanna, Madhu
2010
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Abstract

We conduct an econometric analysis of the factors influencing U.S. crop yields and acres using U.S. county level data from 1977 to 2007 and evaluate the likely effects of future climate change on U.S. crop yields based on the projected climate changes by IPCC (2001) and our estimated parameters.

Details

Title
An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Crop Yield and Cropland Acreage: Implications for the Impact of Climate Change
Keywords
Author(s)
Huang, Haixiao
Khanna, Madhu
Subject(s)
Issue Date
May 03 2010
Publication Type
Conference Paper/ Presentation
DOI and Other Identifiers
10.22004/ag.econ.61527
Record Identifier
https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/61527
PURL Identifier
http://purl.umn.edu/61527
Language
English
Total Pages
34
Note
A SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED/UPDATED AND EDITED VERSION OF THIS PAPER WAS PUBLISHED AS: Citation: Miao, Ruiqing, Madhu Khanna and Haixiao Huang. “Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2015) doi: 10.1093/ajae/aav025 Abstract: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield, but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant. The estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0.23 and 0.45, respectively. Of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price, we find that 33.8% is due to price-induced yield enhancement and 66.2% is due to price-induced acreage expansion. We also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from −7% to −41% and on soybean ranges from −8% to −45%, depending on the climate change scenarios, time horizon, and global climate models used to predict climate change. We show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9% and on soybean yield by up to 15%. Link: http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/aav025?ijkey=zG02pRCa3l4NPkt&keytype=ref
Series Statement
Selected Paper
10720
Record Appears in
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) > Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Conferences > 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado

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