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Abstract
From a case study under the village level study (VLS), it has been found
that in the drought agriculture year 2002-03, the farmers of Uttar Pradesh
followed their best choice and own outlook for risk aversion and invariably
preferred those crops and techniques which involved damage control and
low investment and provided insurance against loss. The water harvesting
for irrigation, intercropping, growing of low-value crops, high concentration
for fodder and grain rather than grain alone, and preferential low-use of
monetary inputs are some of the means commonly used by the farmers
during droughts. It has been concluded that rainfall probability analyses
would be a component of agricultural managing/ reducing risk while large
area of the Indo-Gagetic plains is falling in the state. The major weakness
in generating this type of information and analysis is that it provides no
specific information about the upcoming season with which the farmer
must deal. Some suggestions have been given to mitigate risk in agriculture.
Need has been pointed out for preparing a draught vulnerability index for
different districts. It has been realized that the IMD’s monsoon forecast
methodology needs some serious re-thinking. The intensive climate
information /farmer interface intensification of watershed programme;
tighter agriculture risk management, and sustained crop diversification
will have to be considered. It has been suggested that the preparedness
measures can be taken by two different agencies: the assisting agency,
and the drought-prone areas themselves. Drawing on field information
assembled from drought relief performance, state government may develop
a way of drawing inference from experience. A particular activity in drought
situation should be analyzed and assessed by degree of success, with the
region given for the results. These judgments may be recorded and filed in
a retrieval system called ‘lessons learnt’; which could be used as a useful
reference source in deciding such question as what quantities are required to care for a particular number of people under a particular kind of
environment or situation. The contingency plan for drinking water, irrigation
water, food security, cropping system, drought warning system and
research on drought- resistant varieties of crops may be updated.