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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://purl.umn.edu/51195

Title: Determining Default Probabilities for FSA Direct Loans
Authors: Dodson, Charles B.
Koenig, Steven R.
Authors (Email): Dodson, Charles B. (charles.dodson@wdc.usda.gov)
Koenig, Steven R. (steven.koenig@wdc.usda.gov)
Keywords: FSA credit programs
loan defaults
credit risk models
risk rating
Issue Date: 2008-09-28
Abstract: A binomial logit model was used to analyze relationships between financial characteristics and loan performance for FSA direct borrowers receiving direct FO or OL loans in fiscal 2005. Not surprisingly, the results indicate a strong and direct relationship between many key financial variables and probability of default. Production specialization, however, was indicated to have just as important an impact on probability of default as many financial variables. Other strong indicators included farm size, membership in a targeted group, and the ability to obtain credit from commercial lenders.
URI: http://purl.umn.edu/51195
Institution/Association: Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition >Proceedings: 2005 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, September 25-26, 2008, Kansas City, Missouri
Total Pages: 35
Collections:Proceedings: 2008 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, September 25-26, 2008, Kansas City, Missouri

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