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Title: El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy
Authors: Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
Kelley, Brian W.
Keywords: applied econometrics
metropolitan housing sector forecasts
JEL Codes: C53
Issue Date: 2008-04
Series/Report no.: JAAE
Abstract: There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.
Institution/Association: Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics>Volume 40, Number 01, April 2008
Total Pages: 18
From Page: 385
To Page: 402
Collections:Volume 40, Number 01, April 2008

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