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Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics >
Volume 40, Number 01, April 2008 >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://purl.umn.edu/45046
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| Title: | To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond? |
| Authors: | Frank, Julieta
Garcia, Philip
Irwin, Scott H. |
| Keywords: | HPR
new information
rationality
two-limit tobit
USDA announcements |
| JEL Codes: | C24
Q13 |
| Issue Date: | 2008-04 |
| Abstract: | We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on
announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational
estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR
numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify
conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price
response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures.
Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly
supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term
(long-term) price changes. |
| URI: | http://purl.umn.edu/45046 |
| Institution/Association: | Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics>Volume 40, Number 01, April 2008 |
| Total Pages: | 15 |
| From Page: | 73 |
| To Page: | 87 |
| Collections: | Volume 40, Number 01, April 2008
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| jaae-40-01-73.pdf | | 358Kb | PDF | View/Open |
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