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          2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida  >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://purl.umn.edu/43600

Title: External Validity of Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments
Authors: Chang, Jae Bong
Lusk, Jayson L.
Norwood, F. Bailey
Authors (Email): Chang, Jae Bong (jaebong.chang@okstate.edu)
Lusk, Jayson L. (jayson.lusk@okstate.edu)
Norwood, F. Bailey (bailey.norwood@okstate.edu)
Keywords: contingent valuation
choice experiments
experimental economics
external validity
field experiment
Issue Date: 2008
Series/Report no.: Selected Poster
Abstract: We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, across all methods, we find a reasonably high level of external validity. Our results suggest that the non-hypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the non-hypothetical ranking, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the random parameter logit can have superior predictive performance, but that the multinomial logit predicts equally well in some circumstances.
URI: http://purl.umn.edu/43600
Institution/Association: American Agricultural Economics Association>2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida
Total Pages: 37
Collections: 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida

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