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Abstract
Monitoring rural household income is important for governments, donors, nongovernmental
organizations, researchers, and others involved with development strategies, because increasing rural
household income is a primary objective for achieving many development goals, including reducing
poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition insecurity. However, accurate assessment of rural household
income is time consuming and costly.
Using an expenditure-based income measure, data on actual household expenditures per capita
obtained from various national surveys for 28 Sub-Saharan African countries, this study used proxy
indicators to estimate regression models and then predict and analyze changes in household income per
capita between 1985 and 2006.
Over the 20-year period, the study predicted annual average real household monthly income per
capita at $78 in 1993 international dollars. South Africa was ahead of the group of countries at $225,
followed by Côte d’Ivoire and Lesotho at $117 and $91, respectively. Predictions for Nigeria and Zambia
were the worst at $28 and $39, respectively. Looking at changes in income over time, Burkina Faso, Côte
d’Ivoire, Uganda, Senegal, Mauritania, and Ghana (in declining order) experienced consistent positive
growth. In contrast, Zambia, Kenya, and Lesotho showed declining trends, averaging –2.7 percent, –2.0
percent, and –1.3 percent per year, respectively, over the 20-year period. The latter results were not
surprising given the low and sometimes negative growth rates in real GDP per capita and real agricultural
value added per worker over the same period for those countries. The predicted trends were also
consistent with observed trends in poverty and hunger, suggesting that the methodology is a useful and
least-cost approach for monitoring household incomes to support evaluation of public investment
programs.