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American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) >
2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://purl.umn.edu/21405
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| Title: | Unit Roots, TV-STARs, and the Commodity Terms of Trade: A Further Assessment of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis |
| Authors: | Balagtas, Joseph V.
Holt, Matthew T. |
| Authors (Email): | Balagtas, Joseph V. (balagtas@purdue.edu)
Holt, Matthew T. (mholt@purdue.edu) |
| Issue Date: | 2006 |
| Series/Report no.: | Selected Paper |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, that is, the hypothesis of a long-run decline in the prices of primary commodity prices relative to that of manufactured goods, by considering nonlinear alternatives. Specifically, in this paper we use bootstrap procedures to test the linear unit root model against models belonging to the family of smooth transition autoregressions (STARs) for 24 commodities, 1900-98. In eighteen cases we reject the linear null at usual significance levels. In fourteen cases we are able to successfully fit STAR-type models. Simulation results show there is very little support for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. |
| Notes: | Replaced with revised version of paper 06/27/06. |
| URI: | http://purl.umn.edu/21405 |
| Institution/Association: | American Agricultural Economics Association>2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA |
| Total Pages: | 38 |
| Language: | English |
| Collections: | 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA
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