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Abstract
The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects
a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on
agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to
general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact
on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the
decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization.
Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity
will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead
marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new
technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will
occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is
successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a
large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and
corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.