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Abstract
This paper examines potential land use changes in Africa under climate change by
building an integrated model of crop management, animal husbandry, and forestry.
Using micro-level decisions from around 9000 household surveys in 11 countries, we
analyze the choice of land types across the landscape with a multinomial discrete
choice model. The choices and future adaptation measures are analyzed as a mosaic
based on the typology of Agro-Ecological Zones. The results indicate that if climate
becomes hotter and drier, Africa will adapt by increasing a joint production of crops
and animals, especially in the lowland savannahs. On the other hand, if climate
becomes wetter, it will switch more to forests, either with crops or with both crops and
livestock, especially in the mid and high elevation humid zones. Forestry will play a
significant role in adaptation when a substantial increase in precipitation makes animal
husbandry an unattractive alternative.