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Abstract
With the Doha Round of negotiations having come to a standstill,
more countries opt for preferential trade agreements with only a limited number
of partners. Starting two recent negotiations, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and
the EU-US trade deal, might mark the beginning of a new era in multilateral
trade negotiations in a sense that they connect the largest but geographically
distant players of the world market. The impact of preferential agreements on
welfare and trade patterns has been subject to economic investigation for
decades. Applied equilibrium models are key analytical tools in the ex ante
assessment of trade negotiations, but are often criticized as being sensitive with
regard to underlying assumptions and input data. For trade related impact
assessment, assumptions relating to the aggregation and presentation of border
protection instruments are of specific interest. This study contributes to the
assessment of equilibrium modelling techniques with a focus on tariff rate
quotas (TRQ) by systematically comparing simulated impacts on traded volumes
and welfare under different implementation of TRQs. In the equilibrium
modelling literature TRQ instruments are either modelled explicitly (linking the
variable tariff rate and the fill rate of the quota threshold) or transformed into an
ad valorem equivalent (AVE) tariff rate. In the standard Vinerian framework of
welfare analysis, trade diversion occurs when imports from low cost producers
in the rest of the world are displaced by exporters benefitting from trade
preferences. The simulated shift in imports in an equilibrium model depends on
the third country policy representation. With binding tariff rate quotas in the
initial point, for example, shifts in traded volumes will be significantly different
if the TRQ instrument is modelled explicitly or by its AVE tariff rate. This study
demonstrates the sensitivity of simulated results by both developing a simple
three country model of international trade and by implementing an illustrative
EU-US trade deal scenario with the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised
Impacts (CAPRI) modelling system. The focus is on whether the choice of modelling TRQ instruments with third countries explicitly or by their AVE tariff
rates has a significant impact on simulation results. In default, most policy
instruments in CAPRI – including border protection and market intervention
mechanisms – are modelled explicitly. Tariffs subject to quota limits are
approximated with a smooth function mimicking the switching mechanism
between preferential and out of quota rates. For the sake of this study this
mechanism is optionally replaced with the AVE representation. CAPRI is then
calibrated under both TRQ representations and the results of the same trade deal
scenario are compared.