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          Volume 33, Number 03, December 2001 >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://purl.umn.edu/15443

Title: ENSO AND SOYBEAN PRICES: CORRELATION WITHOUT CAUSALITY
Authors: Letson, David
McCullough, B.D.
Keywords: climate forecasting
Granger causality
spectral analysis
SOI
SST
JEL Codes: C22
Q11
Issue Date: 2001-12
Abstract: In this paper we seek to characterize the robustness of the ENSO/soybean price relationship and to determine whether it has practical economic content. If such a meaningful relationship exists, the implications could be profound for commodity traders and for public sector investments in climate forecasting capabilities. Also, the validity of economic evaluations of climate impacts and climate forecasts based on ENSO-price independence would come into question. Our findings suggest a relationship between interannual climate and soybean prices, although we are not able to attribute the relationship to ENSO or to say the ENSO is economically important.
URI: http://purl.umn.edu/15443
Institution/Association: Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics>Volume 33, Number 03, December 2001
Total Pages: 9
Language: English
From Page: 513
To Page: 521
Collections:Volume 33, Number 03, December 2001

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