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          Volume 27, Number 02, December 1995 >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://purl.umn.edu/15257

Title: UNCERTAIN YIELDS IN SECTORAL WELFARE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO GLOBAL WARMING
Authors: Lambert, David K.
McCarl, Bruce A.
He, Quifen
Kaylen, Michael S.
Rosenthal, Wesley
Chang, Ching-Cheng
Nayda, W.I.
Keywords: Agricultural sector analysis
Global warming
Partial equilibrium models
Stochastic programming
Issue Date: 1995-12
Abstract: Agriculture operates in an uncertain environment. Yields, prices, and resource usage can change dramatically from year to year. However, most analyses of the agricultural sector, at least those using mathematical programming methods, assume decision making is based on average yields, ignoring yield variability. This study examines how explicit consideration of stochastic yield outcomes influence a sector analysis. We develop a model that can be used for stochastic sector analysis. We extend the risk framework developed by Hazell and others to incorporate discrete yield outcomes as well as consumption activities dependent upon yield outcomes. An empirical application addresses a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of the economic effects of yield variability in a global warming context.
URI: http://purl.umn.edu/15257
Institution/Association: Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics>Volume 27, Number 02, December 1995
Total Pages: 14
Language: English
From Page: 423
To Page: 436
Collections:Volume 27, Number 02, December 1995

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