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Journal of Agribusiness >
Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003 >
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://purl.umn.edu/14673
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| Title: | THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS |
| Authors: | Sanders, Dwight R.
Irwin, Scott H.
Leuthold, Raymond M. |
| Keywords: | bullish consensus
contrary opinion
market sentiment |
| Issue Date: | 2003 |
| Abstract: | The theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic and marginal ability to predict returns, and in those instances the pattern is one of return continuation--not reversals. Therefore, futures traders who rely solely upon sentiment indices as contrary indicators may be misguided. |
| URI: | http://purl.umn.edu/14673 |
| Institution/Association: | Journal of Agribusiness>Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003 |
| Total Pages: | 26 |
| Language: | English |
| From Page: | 39 |
| To Page: | 64 |
| Collections: | Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003
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| 21010039.pdf | 418Kb | PDF | View/Open |
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