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Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003 >
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|Title: ||THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS|
|Authors: ||Sanders, Dwight R.|
Irwin, Scott H.
Leuthold, Raymond M.
|Keywords: ||bullish consensus|
|Issue Date: ||2003|
|Abstract: ||The theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic and marginal ability to predict returns, and in those instances the pattern is one of return continuation--not reversals. Therefore, futures traders who rely solely upon sentiment indices as contrary indicators may be misguided.|
|Institution/Association: ||Journal of Agribusiness>Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003|
|Total Pages: ||26|
|From Page: ||39|
|To Page: ||64|
|Collections:||Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003|
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