AgEcon Search

AgEcon Search >
       Journal of Agribusiness >
          Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003 >

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://purl.umn.edu/14673

Title: THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS
Authors: Sanders, Dwight R.
Irwin, Scott H.
Leuthold, Raymond M.
Keywords: bullish consensus
contrary opinion
market sentiment
Issue Date: 2003
Abstract: The theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic and marginal ability to predict returns, and in those instances the pattern is one of return continuation--not reversals. Therefore, futures traders who rely solely upon sentiment indices as contrary indicators may be misguided.
URI: http://purl.umn.edu/14673
Institution/Association: Journal of Agribusiness>Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003
Total Pages: 26
Language: English
From Page: 39
To Page: 64
Collections:Volume 21, Number 1, Spring 2003

Files in This Item:

File SizeFormat
21010039.pdf418KbPDFView/Open
Recommend this item

All items in AgEcon Search are protected by copyright.

 

 

Brought to you by the University of Minnesota Department of Applied Economics and the University of Minnesota Libraries with cooperation from the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

All papers are in Acrobat (.pdf) format. Get Adobe Reader

Contact Us

Powered by: