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Abstract
Researchers and policymakers increasingly recognize that the livestock sector supports the
livelihoods of a large proportion of rural households in most African countries and may have
an important role to play in rural poverty reduction strategies. In order to develop this insight,
economywide models should capture both the biological, dynamic relationships between the
stocks and flows of livestock and the economic linkages between the sector and the rest of
the economy. We extend an existing dynamic recursive general equilibrium model for the
Ethiopian economy which better models the livestock sector. A separate herd dynamics
module enables us to specify stock-flow relationship, distinguishing between the capital role
of livestock and the flow of livestock products. We also improve the underlying system of
economic accounts, to better capture draft power and breeding stocks. We use this model to
simulate separate, realistic Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks to three agricultural
subsectors—cereals, cash crops, and livestock—and compare them with a baseline
scenario replicating the 1998 to 2007 productivity trends, following Dorosh and Thurlow
(2009) who have examined CAADP productivity scenarios. The results we obtain reveal the
important role of the livestock sector in increasing various measures of GDP and combating
food insecurity. Agricultural GDP and overall GDP growth levels achieved in the livestock
TFP shock scenario are very similar to those achieved in the cereal TFP shock scenario,
unlike what previously thought. Importantly, as factors are dynamically re-allocated between
agricultural activities, our analysis highlights the inefficiency of strategies focusing on cereal
sector development alone. Moreover, livestock sector productivity growth leads to greater
factor income growth, particularly labor income, than in the other simulations. Labor is the
predominant asset of poor households and hence large income gains and food consumption
growth are realized under the livestock-led scenario.