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Abstract
An extensive empirical literature has examined the behavior of crop yields over
time. Corn yields have been characterized by signficant increases reflecting an array
of technological developments that have substantially boosted productivity. While
much of the focus has been on modeling deterministic and possibly stochastic trends
in yields over time, an equally important question involves the extent to which yield
changes may occur in response to price. This paper addresses two dimensions of this
issue. We first look at the extent to which realized yields (i.e., at harvest) tend to
be influenced by planting{time quotes of post{harvest futures contracts. Second, we
examine the potential for intra{seasonal responsiveness of yields to significant price
swings. The latter response is especially important in light of recent arguments that
weather offers identification through instruments that are completely exogenous to
market conditions; a view often expressed in terms of a "natural experiment." We
challenge this argument by finding that the potential does exist for yields to be affected
by significant price changes that occur early in the growing season.