Files
Abstract
Trade creation in agricultural products is defined as a statistically significant
positive break in the trend function of the growth in exports and imports between
member countries. The present study attempts to determine the time of any break
in the trend of real exports and imports between the Canada–USA Free Trade
Agreement (CUSTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
member countries for the years 1980:I through 1999:II, and document the scale of the
phenomenon. The present study finds trade creation only occurs in USA agricultural
exports to Canada because of CUSTA. The results confirm the theory that
the regionalism of NAFTA did not lead to regionalisation or an increasing share of
intraregional international trade.