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Abstract
Agricultural bioenergy production faces dynamics such as yield fluctuations, volatile prices,
resource competition, new regulation and policy, innovation and climate change. To what
extent is bioenergy production able to adapt to changing environments and to overcome
critical events? We investigate in detail how the agricultural bioenergy sector in the German
State of Brandenburg adapted to diverse past events. The analysis rests on the adaptive-cycle
concept of HOLLING and GUNDERSON (2002a), which has been widely applied in socialecological
systems research. Brandenburg’s bioenergy production displays properties of a
system in the exploitation phase, including a low potential and a high resilience of the system
and a low connectedness within the system. There are risks and opportunities for bioenergy
production. Sustainable bioenergy production requires a transition from the exploitation to the
conservation phase. But Brandenburg’s bioenergy sector has limited adaptive capacity and
there are certain barriers for the agricultural bioenergy sector to overcome potentially critical
states. Policy needs to be tailored accordingly.