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Abstract
This paper uses variance decomposition modelling to explore how wheat revenue
volatility in Australia has changed spatially and temporally. The components of
revenue variance are the variances and covariances of wheat prices, the area of wheat
harvested and the yield of wheat. The key finding is that the volatility of wheat
revenue (detrended) has more than doubled in every main wheat-growing State in
Australia over the last 15 years or so Changes in wheat areas are mostly a minor
source of revenue variance. The principal cause of volatility is yield changes with
price changes increasing slightly in absolute importance when compared to their
adjacent previous period. Greater downside yield risk is often the principal cause of
the increased yield variance. The implications are that revenue variance, and
especially downside revenue risk, has posed major problems for wheat-dominant farm
businesses over the last 15 years or so. How Australia’s wheat producers have
managed this greater volatility of wheat revenue is likely to have greatly affected the
viability of their farm businesses.