http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/36225 Search the Channel search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/simple-search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31698 Title: Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions <br/> <br/>Authors: Deressa, T.; Hassan, R.; Poonyth, D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study employed a Ricardian model that captures farmers' adaptation to analyze the impact of climate change on South African Sugarcane production under irrigation and dryland conditions. The study utilized time series data for the period 1977 to 1998 pooled over 11 districts. Results showed that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on net revenue per hectare of sugarcane in South Africa with higher sensitivity to future increases in temperature than precipitation. Irrigation did not prove to provide an effective option for mitigating climate change damages on sugarcane production in South Africa. The study suggests that adaptation strategies should focus special attention on technologies and management regimes that will enhance sugarcane tolerance to warmer temperatures during winter and especially the harvesting phases. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31699 Title: Causes of household food insecurity in Koredegaga Peasant Association, Oromiya Zone, Ethiopia <br/> <br/>Authors: Kidane, H.; Alemu, Z.G.; Kundhlande, G. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The main objective of the study was to examine the determinants of households' food security using a logistic regression procedure. The model was initially fitted with eleven factors, of which six were found to be significant, and all exhibited the expected signs. These include farmland size, ox ownership, fertilizer application, education level of household heads, household size, and per capita production. The result was analyzed further to compute partial effects and to conduct simulation studies on significant determinant factors. Analysis of partial effects revealed that an introduction to fertilizer use and an improvement in the educational levels of household heads lead to relatively greater probability of food security. On the other hand, simulations were conducted on the basis of the base category of farmers, representing food secure households, revealed that both educational levels of household heads and fertilizer application by farmers have relatively high potential to more than double the number of food secure households in the study area following improvements in these factors. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31700 Title: Determination of priorities of buyers regarding value contributing characteristics of farm land in the Stellenbosch District, South Africa <br/> <br/>Authors: Kleynhans, T.E.; Opperman, J.M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The use of the comparable sales method to value farm properties requires that professional valuers must think like a typical buyer of farm properties in a particular area. The Stellenbosch district, located on the periphery of the Cape Metropole, is a famous wine-producing area. The typical buyer is sophisticated and wealthy: someone for whom lifestyle could probably be just as important as the income generating capacity of the wine estate. A variety of site and situational factors have to be considered by the valuer: some of which are easily identifiable and quantifiable, where others are more elusive. This study aimed to identify and order the more important motivations as perceived by typical buyers in order to provide guidelines to valuers. An empirical study was done to determine buyers' and property characteristics, and buyers' ratings of possible motivations for buying land in Stellenbosch. Factor analysis provided a hierarchy of motivations. Terroir is the dominant site factor and the most important motivation, followed by location relative to Cape Town, the aesthetic beauty of the property, accessibility of the property, potential for new/more vineyards, meso-climate and the status of the “address”. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31701 Title: Criteria to monitor the poverty alleviation, empowerment and institutional performance of equity-share schemes in South African agriculture <br/> <br/>Authors: Gray, B.C.; Lyne, M.C.; Ferrer, S.R.D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper extends a previous study in South Africa aimed at developing methodology for assessing the performance of equity-share schemes. The previous study proposed four broad criteria to measure performance: poverty alleviation; empowerment and participation; institutional arrangements and governance; and financial performance. This paper does not aim to assess the performance of existing equity-share schemes but to develop a methodology for the first three criteria based on empirical analysis of data gathered in 2004 from a land reform project in the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and seven established equity-share schemes in the Western Cape. Poverty alleviation is measured using a transition matrix of households grouped by four different symptoms of poverty: current income, wealth, health and a principal component index of housing quality. Eight categories of indicators are recommended for empowerment and participation: control and ownership; skills transfer; understanding; information; outcomes; trust; outreach; and participation. A scorecard applying norms based on empirical evidence gathered at the equity-share schemes in the Western Cape is used to test the indicators. A scorecard approach is also applied to institutional arrangements and governance, which are measured using three categories of indicators: accountability, transparency and property rights. The proposed performance measures are relevant, manageable in number and have feasible norms based on empirical evidence. These indicators and their norms need to be tested on a wider scale and monitored over time. Future research should be undertaken to determine weights for the empowerment and institutional indicators. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31702 Title: Modelling risk in farm planning <br/> <br/>Authors: Visagie, S.E.; Ghebretsadik, A.H. <br/> <br/>Abstract: In this article a mathematical model is presented to assist management decisions on an integrated crop and livestock farm. Risk is incorporated into the model as the negative deviation of the actual gross income from the expected value of an activity's gross income. The model includes crop production (permitting and optimising a crop rotation system), dairy production and wool sheep production. Relevant data from a farm in the Swartland region of the Western Cape were used to test and validate the model. The results show that the adoption of crop rotation is superior in terms of gross margin to that generated from a mono-crop strategy. Empirical results also indicate that the complex interrelationships involved in a mixed crop-livestock farm operation play a major role in determining optimal farm plans. These complex interrelationships favour the introduction of crop rotation in the crop production activities of the farm under investigation. Solutions of the model with risk indicate that the crop rotation strategy and animal production levels are sensitive to different risk levels, and that the incorporation of risk greatly affects the level of land allocation to crop rotation and animal production level of the farm. Finally, the results suggest that the introduction of crop rotation is of paramount importance in improving the profitability and sustainability of the farm, thus the inclusion of forage crops such as medics into the integrated crop-livestock production is beneficial for sustained profitability. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31703 Title: The effect of internationalisation on the beef and maize sub-sectors: The relevance of revealed comparative advantage measures <br/> <br/>Authors: Jooste, A.; Bahta, S.T. <br/> <br/>Abstract: According to the RCA and RCA# the beef sub-sector in South Africa has shown a revealed comparative disadvantage for 17 out of the 22 years to 2002, while the maize sub-sector showed a revealed comparative advantage for 18 out of the same 22 years. However, this article argues that these results do not show the real state of competitiveness that exists in these sub-sectors, mainly because RCA measures should not be used to make definitive conclusions whether an industry, sector or sub-sector is competitive, nor whether it uses scare resources efficiently. RCA measures explain in more accurate ways, relative to a simple analysis of export trends, how a country features in the context of world trade. Hence, one possible application of RCA measures is to deduce the impact of changes in trade policies on an industry, sector or sub-sector. Cognisance should also be taken that the RCA measures fail to distinguish between a region's factor endowments. Finally, it appears as if both the beef and maize sub-sectors have adjusted favourably since the implementation of the Marrakech agreement and subsequent deregulation of the domestic market. Favourably in this context means that both sub-sectors appear to have discounted the changing trade and regulatory environments into their respective supply chains. The question of how competitive these sub-sectors are relative to their international counterparts however remains unanswered, and will require a more in-depth analysis of the complete chains for these sub-sectors. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31704 Title: Application of Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) for the optimal allocation of irrigation water under capacity sharing arrangements <br/> <br/>Authors: Gakpo, E.; Tsephe, J.; Nwonwu, F.; Viljoen, M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study attempts to arrive at an optimal allocation of irrigation water using capacity sharing (CS) as an institutional arrangement, and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an optimisation model. It determines the value of an additional unit of water under a crop enterprise mix of lucerne-maize-wheat (LMW). SDP is an improvement on linear programming (LP) under stochastic conditions. The SIM-DY-SIM Model was used to simulate optimal returns, decision and policy variables under varying conditions of capacity share. LP results show that wheat has the highest MVP of R0.39/m3, with maize exhibiting the lowest value of R0.09/m3. The MVPs generated with SDP range between R0.06/m3 and R0.35/m3 on the whole farm basis, with revenue to the farmer increasing with an increase in CS content and increased percentage water release. However, the MVP of water decreased with the increased supply of the resource – a phenomenon that follows the general rule of decreasing marginal utility of a resource as more of it is used. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31705 Title: Impact of capital on the growth process of a sugarcane farm in Mpumalanga <br/> <br/>Authors: Haile, B.O.; Grove, B.; Oosthuizen, L.K. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The research was conducted for a representative 50 ha farm in the Onderberg region in Mpumalanga province, where farmers use a combination of centre-pivot, drip, and dragline systems of different sizes to grow sugarcane. The main intention was to establish a multi-period linear programming model capable of economically evaluating a farm's expansion decision-making process for farmers faced with investment decisions in alternative irrigation systems, taking into account the available initial capital of the farm. A linear programming (LP) model was used to assign a mainline for a total of twelve irrigation system combinations based on the assumption that the farmer wishes to start with a 30 ha centre-pivot investment. The Generalized Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) was used to formulate the farm growth model as mixed integer dynamic linear programming (MIDLP) for a 15-year planning horizon. Based on the results, farmers are initially forced to invest in lower-cost irrigation systems when they lack capital to start a farm business due to the time value of money. They only consider lowering operating costs by investing in capital intensive irrigation systems when they have more own capital or borrowing capacity. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31705 Title: Impact of capital on the growth process of a sugarcane farm in Mpumalanga <br/> <br/>Authors: Haile, B.O.; Grove, B.; Oosthuizen, L.K. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The research was conducted for a representative 50 ha farm in the Onderberg region in Mpumalanga province, where farmers use a combination of centre-pivot, drip, and dragline systems of different sizes to grow sugarcane. The main intention was to establish a multi-period linear programming model capable of economically evaluating a farm's expansion decision-making process for farmers faced with investment decisions in alternative irrigation systems, taking into account the available initial capital of the farm. A linear programming (LP) model was used to assign a mainline for a total of twelve irrigation system combinations based on the assumption that the farmer wishes to start with a 30 ha centre-pivot investment. The Generalized Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) was used to formulate the farm growth model as mixed integer dynamic linear programming (MIDLP) for a 15-year planning horizon. Based on the results, farmers are initially forced to invest in lower-cost irrigation systems when they lack capital to start a farm business due to the time value of money. They only consider lowering operating costs by investing in capital intensive irrigation systems when they have more own capital or borrowing capacity. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31699 Title: Causes of household food insecurity in Koredegaga Peasant Association, Oromiya Zone, Ethiopia <br/> <br/>Authors: Kidane, H.; Alemu, Z.G.; Kundhlande, G. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The main objective of the study was to examine the determinants of households' food security using a logistic regression procedure. The model was initially fitted with eleven factors, of which six were found to be significant, and all exhibited the expected signs. These include farmland size, ox ownership, fertilizer application, education level of household heads, household size, and per capita production. The result was analyzed further to compute partial effects and to conduct simulation studies on significant determinant factors. Analysis of partial effects revealed that an introduction to fertilizer use and an improvement in the educational levels of household heads lead to relatively greater probability of food security. On the other hand, simulations were conducted on the basis of the base category of farmers, representing food secure households, revealed that both educational levels of household heads and fertilizer application by farmers have relatively high potential to more than double the number of food secure households in the study area following improvements in these factors. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31704 Title: Application of Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) for the optimal allocation of irrigation water under capacity sharing arrangements <br/> <br/>Authors: Gakpo, E.; Tsephe, J.; Nwonwu, F.; Viljoen, M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study attempts to arrive at an optimal allocation of irrigation water using capacity sharing (CS) as an institutional arrangement, and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an optimisation model. It determines the value of an additional unit of water under a crop enterprise mix of lucerne-maize-wheat (LMW). SDP is an improvement on linear programming (LP) under stochastic conditions. The SIM-DY-SIM Model was used to simulate optimal returns, decision and policy variables under varying conditions of capacity share. LP results show that wheat has the highest MVP of R0.39/m3, with maize exhibiting the lowest value of R0.09/m3. The MVPs generated with SDP range between R0.06/m3 and R0.35/m3 on the whole farm basis, with revenue to the farmer increasing with an increase in CS content and increased percentage water release. However, the MVP of water decreased with the increased supply of the resource – a phenomenon that follows the general rule of decreasing marginal utility of a resource as more of it is used. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31698 Title: Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions <br/> <br/>Authors: Deressa, T.; Hassan, R.; Poonyth, D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study employed a Ricardian model that captures farmers' adaptation to analyze the impact of climate change on South African Sugarcane production under irrigation and dryland conditions. The study utilized time series data for the period 1977 to 1998 pooled over 11 districts. Results showed that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on net revenue per hectare of sugarcane in South Africa with higher sensitivity to future increases in temperature than precipitation. Irrigation did not prove to provide an effective option for mitigating climate change damages on sugarcane production in South Africa. The study suggests that adaptation strategies should focus special attention on technologies and management regimes that will enhance sugarcane tolerance to warmer temperatures during winter and especially the harvesting phases. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31700 Title: Determination of priorities of buyers regarding value contributing characteristics of farm land in the Stellenbosch District, South Africa <br/> <br/>Authors: Kleynhans, T.E.; Opperman, J.M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The use of the comparable sales method to value farm properties requires that professional valuers must think like a typical buyer of farm properties in a particular area. The Stellenbosch district, located on the periphery of the Cape Metropole, is a famous wine-producing area. The typical buyer is sophisticated and wealthy: someone for whom lifestyle could probably be just as important as the income generating capacity of the wine estate. A variety of site and situational factors have to be considered by the valuer: some of which are easily identifiable and quantifiable, where others are more elusive. This study aimed to identify and order the more important motivations as perceived by typical buyers in order to provide guidelines to valuers. An empirical study was done to determine buyers' and property characteristics, and buyers' ratings of possible motivations for buying land in Stellenbosch. Factor analysis provided a hierarchy of motivations. Terroir is the dominant site factor and the most important motivation, followed by location relative to Cape Town, the aesthetic beauty of the property, accessibility of the property, potential for new/more vineyards, meso-climate and the status of the “address”. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31702 Title: Modelling risk in farm planning <br/> <br/>Authors: Visagie, S.E.; Ghebretsadik, A.H. <br/> <br/>Abstract: In this article a mathematical model is presented to assist management decisions on an integrated crop and livestock farm. Risk is incorporated into the model as the negative deviation of the actual gross income from the expected value of an activity's gross income. The model includes crop production (permitting and optimising a crop rotation system), dairy production and wool sheep production. Relevant data from a farm in the Swartland region of the Western Cape were used to test and validate the model. The results show that the adoption of crop rotation is superior in terms of gross margin to that generated from a mono-crop strategy. Empirical results also indicate that the complex interrelationships involved in a mixed crop-livestock farm operation play a major role in determining optimal farm plans. These complex interrelationships favour the introduction of crop rotation in the crop production activities of the farm under investigation. Solutions of the model with risk indicate that the crop rotation strategy and animal production levels are sensitive to different risk levels, and that the incorporation of risk greatly affects the level of land allocation to crop rotation and animal production level of the farm. Finally, the results suggest that the introduction of crop rotation is of paramount importance in improving the profitability and sustainability of the farm, thus the inclusion of forage crops such as medics into the integrated crop-livestock production is beneficial for sustained profitability. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31701 Title: Criteria to monitor the poverty alleviation, empowerment and institutional performance of equity-share schemes in South African agriculture <br/> <br/>Authors: Gray, B.C.; Lyne, M.C.; Ferrer, S.R.D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper extends a previous study in South Africa aimed at developing methodology for assessing the performance of equity-share schemes. The previous study proposed four broad criteria to measure performance: poverty alleviation; empowerment and participation; institutional arrangements and governance; and financial performance. This paper does not aim to assess the performance of existing equity-share schemes but to develop a methodology for the first three criteria based on empirical analysis of data gathered in 2004 from a land reform project in the Midlands of KwaZulu-Natal and seven established equity-share schemes in the Western Cape. Poverty alleviation is measured using a transition matrix of households grouped by four different symptoms of poverty: current income, wealth, health and a principal component index of housing quality. Eight categories of indicators are recommended for empowerment and participation: control and ownership; skills transfer; understanding; information; outcomes; trust; outreach; and participation. A scorecard applying norms based on empirical evidence gathered at the equity-share schemes in the Western Cape is used to test the indicators. A scorecard approach is also applied to institutional arrangements and governance, which are measured using three categories of indicators: accountability, transparency and property rights. The proposed performance measures are relevant, manageable in number and have feasible norms based on empirical evidence. These indicators and their norms need to be tested on a wider scale and monitored over time. Future research should be undertaken to determine weights for the empowerment and institutional indicators. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31703 Title: The effect of internationalisation on the beef and maize sub-sectors: The relevance of revealed comparative advantage measures <br/> <br/>Authors: Jooste, A.; Bahta, S.T. <br/> <br/>Abstract: According to the RCA and RCA# the beef sub-sector in South Africa has shown a revealed comparative disadvantage for 17 out of the 22 years to 2002, while the maize sub-sector showed a revealed comparative advantage for 18 out of the same 22 years. However, this article argues that these results do not show the real state of competitiveness that exists in these sub-sectors, mainly because RCA measures should not be used to make definitive conclusions whether an industry, sector or sub-sector is competitive, nor whether it uses scare resources efficiently. RCA measures explain in more accurate ways, relative to a simple analysis of export trends, how a country features in the context of world trade. Hence, one possible application of RCA measures is to deduce the impact of changes in trade policies on an industry, sector or sub-sector. Cognisance should also be taken that the RCA measures fail to distinguish between a region's factor endowments. Finally, it appears as if both the beef and maize sub-sectors have adjusted favourably since the implementation of the Marrakech agreement and subsequent deregulation of the domestic market. Favourably in this context means that both sub-sectors appear to have discounted the changing trade and regulatory environments into their respective supply chains. The question of how competitive these sub-sectors are relative to their international counterparts however remains unanswered, and will require a more in-depth analysis of the complete chains for these sub-sectors. Mon, 28 Nov 2005 22:58:59 GMT