http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/36228 Search the Channel search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/simple-search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31706 Title: A production function analysis of commercial dairy farms in the Highlands of Eritrea using ridge regression <br/> <br/>Authors: Ghebremariam, W.K.; Ortmann, G.F.; Nsahlai, I.V. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study presents a production function analysis of fresh milk production in the Highlands of Eritrea, where most dairy farmers in Eritrea are located. To ensure representative production functions, this region was divided into three relatively homogenous study areas, namely Central Zone, Mendefera and Dekemhare. Most data for the study were collected in a survey of 120 respondents using a structured questionnaire. To obviate the problem of multicollinearity among explainatory variables, ridge regression was used to estimate milk production functions for each study area. Production elasticities of variable inputs, marginal products (MPx), values of marginal products (VMPx), marginal rates of input substitution (MRS) and least-cost combinations of purchased concentrates and forage were estimated for the three regions. The VMPs of all inputs for Central Zone dairy farmer respondents were estimated to be greater than their input prices, implying that the resources were under-utilized from a profit-maximising perspective (i.e. where VMPx = Px). However, respondents in Mendefera and Dekemhare used concentrates in excess of optimum levels (i.e. VMPx<Px). Analysis of the least-cost combination of purchased concentrates and forage suggests that dairy farmer respondents were also not allocating these resources on a minimum-cost basis. However, the profit maximizing and least-cost criteria assume perfect knowledge, a risk-free environment and competitive markets. Improved information, farmer training and better infrastructure (roads and telecommunications) to promote competitive markets could help to enhance resource allocation decisions by dairy producers. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31707 Title: Towards a broader understanding of South African consumer spending on meat <br/> <br/>Authors: Taljaard, P.R.; Jooste, A.; Asfaha, T.A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper analyses meat consumption trends in South Africa. Despite the fact that aggregate per capita meat consumption remained relatively constant during the last 34 years, significant changes were observed in the per capita consumption among different meat categories. By applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Johansen co integration approach to a conventional demand function, significant changes in the contributions of economic and non-economic factors towards meat demand were identified over time. From the analysis it is apparent that non-economic factors play a greater role in determining meat consumption in South Africa. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31708 Title: The comparative advantage of selected long-term crops in Lesotho <br/> <br/>Authors: Makosholo, M.L.; Jooste, A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper evaluates the comparative economic advantage (CEA) of irrigated long-term crops (cherries, peaches, apples and asparagus) in the four agro-ecological zones of Lesotho based on analyses of profitability coefficients and domestic resource costs. The analysis was carried out using the net present value (NPV) approach. The CEA analysis yielded higher private returns relative to economic returns in the lowlands, Foothills, the Senqu River Valley and the Mountains of Lesotho for all the crops examined. In the lowlands zone all products have a RCR of lower than one indicating a comparative advantage. In the Foothills only apples and peaches were investigated, and both show a comparative advantage of equal strength. In the Senqu River Valley the result for apples and peaches are mixed, i.e. apples show a comparative advantage, whilst peaches show a comparative disadvantage. In the Mountain zone only apples have a comparative advantage. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted related to exchange rate changes, land and water prices, and threshold prices. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31709 Title: Analysis of the technical efficiency of rice farms in Ijesha Land of Osun State, Nigeria <br/> <br/>Authors: Tijani, A.A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study estimated technical efficiencies on rice farms in Osun State, Nigeria, and identified some socioeconomic factors, which influence productive efficiency. These technical efficiencies were estimated using the stochastic frontier production function approach applied to primary data. A translog production function was used to represent the production frontier of the rice farms. The study showed that the levels of technical efficiency ranged from 29.4% to 98.2% with a mean of 86.6%, which suggests that average rice output falls 13.4% short of the maximum possible level. Therefore in the short run there is scope to increase technical efficiencies on rice farms in the study area. The study also showed that these efficiencies are positively and significantly correlated with the application of traditional preparation methods, and with off-farm income. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31710 Title: Choosing between the AIDS and Rotterdam models: A meat demand analysis case study <br/> <br/>Authors: Taljaard, P.R.; van Schalkwyk, H.D.; Alemu, Z.G. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Due to the inability of economic theory to choose ex ante between the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Rotterdam model, a non-nested test was used. The results of the non-nested test points to the Linearized-AIDS model applied to 31 years of meat consumption data in South Africa. When comparing the estimated demand relations of the two models, the LA/AIDS model also proved to be better fit for South African meat demand. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31711 Title: Measuring the determinants of pork consumption in Bloemfontein, Central South Africa <br/> <br/>Authors: Oyewumi, O.A.; Jooste, A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the determinants of households' pork consumption using a logistic regression procedure. The model was initially fitted with ten variables, selected from factors identified by precious studies, that affect meat consumption in South Africa. Six of these variables were found to be significant at the 10 per cent significance level and all had the expected signs. These include household monthly income, current household monthly expenditure on meat, relative price of pork, preference for value-added pork products, prices of substitutes (the most preferred household meat type), and response of household to change in pork quality. The result obtained was further analyzed to compute partial effects and to conduct simulations for significant factors. Analysis of partial effects revealed that quality assurance and value-adding lead to much greater probability of pork consumption by households. Simulation conducted on the base category of pork-consuming households revealed that quality assurance and value-adding have relatively high potential to almost double and more than double household pork consumption respectively. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31712 Title: Smallholder farming styles and development policy in South Africa: The case of Dzindi Irrigation Scheme <br/> <br/>Authors: van Averbeke, W.; Mohamed, S.S. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Diversity among smallholders farming 1.28ha plots at Dzindi Irrigation Scheme in the Thulamela Local Municipality of Limpopo Province, South Africa is investigated by applying farming style theory. Farming styles refer to specific farming strategies, which are conscious responses of farmers to the prevailing ecological and socio-economic conditions. The specific objectives of the study were to identify and characterize styles of farming in the Dzindi community of smallholders, to provide an understanding of the different styles from a smallholder perspective, and to interpret the meaning of the findings for smallholder development policy. Data collection involved both quantitative and qualitative methods. Three main farming styles were identified, and in each of these farmers employed particular strategies, which were congruent with their farming objectives, and which represent different degrees of exposure to risk evidenced by the crop selection, the amount of land they planted, the service providers they used with specific reference to land preparation, the social networks they maintained, especially with regard to marketing produce, the labour they hired and the farming requisites they purchased and utilized. The findings suggested that the response by farmers in the different styles to contemporary agricultural and related policy aimed at their empowerment and commercialization in unlikely to be uniform, and this is expected to dilute the impact of policy measures in support of specific development trajectories. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31713 Title: Testing for weak-form efficiency in South African futures market for wheat and sunflower seeds <br/> <br/>Authors: Phukubje, M.P.; Moholwa, M.B. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The deregulation of agricultural markets in South Africa led to the establishment of a futures market for agricultural products, which was opened in January 1995. Commodity futures markets should be efficient to play most effective role in price risk management. This paper tests for weak-form efficiency in the South African Future markets for wheat and sunflower seeds by examining the predictability of daily futures price changes. The results suggest that futures price changes for both wheat and sunflower seeds are partially predictable from past price information. The implication is that past price information does contain additional information that could be used to forecast the future price once the current future price is known. But when taking into account the brokerage costs and the time value of money, out-of-sample predictive performance of the model indicates that trading decisions based on the direction of predicted futures price changes do not lead to profitable trades for either crop. Hence, the evidence suggests that there is no strong support for weak-form inefficiency in South African futures markets for wheat and sunflower seeds. The results further suggest that there is no trend in market efficiency over time for wheat and sunflower seeds, except for the wheat December contract. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31711 Title: Measuring the determinants of pork consumption in Bloemfontein, Central South Africa <br/> <br/>Authors: Oyewumi, O.A.; Jooste, A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The main objective of this study is to investigate the determinants of households' pork consumption using a logistic regression procedure. The model was initially fitted with ten variables, selected from factors identified by precious studies, that affect meat consumption in South Africa. Six of these variables were found to be significant at the 10 per cent significance level and all had the expected signs. These include household monthly income, current household monthly expenditure on meat, relative price of pork, preference for value-added pork products, prices of substitutes (the most preferred household meat type), and response of household to change in pork quality. The result obtained was further analyzed to compute partial effects and to conduct simulations for significant factors. Analysis of partial effects revealed that quality assurance and value-adding lead to much greater probability of pork consumption by households. Simulation conducted on the base category of pork-consuming households revealed that quality assurance and value-adding have relatively high potential to almost double and more than double household pork consumption respectively. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31706 Title: A production function analysis of commercial dairy farms in the Highlands of Eritrea using ridge regression <br/> <br/>Authors: Ghebremariam, W.K.; Ortmann, G.F.; Nsahlai, I.V. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study presents a production function analysis of fresh milk production in the Highlands of Eritrea, where most dairy farmers in Eritrea are located. To ensure representative production functions, this region was divided into three relatively homogenous study areas, namely Central Zone, Mendefera and Dekemhare. Most data for the study were collected in a survey of 120 respondents using a structured questionnaire. To obviate the problem of multicollinearity among explainatory variables, ridge regression was used to estimate milk production functions for each study area. Production elasticities of variable inputs, marginal products (MPx), values of marginal products (VMPx), marginal rates of input substitution (MRS) and least-cost combinations of purchased concentrates and forage were estimated for the three regions. The VMPs of all inputs for Central Zone dairy farmer respondents were estimated to be greater than their input prices, implying that the resources were under-utilized from a profit-maximising perspective (i.e. where VMPx = Px). However, respondents in Mendefera and Dekemhare used concentrates in excess of optimum levels (i.e. VMPx<Px). Analysis of the least-cost combination of purchased concentrates and forage suggests that dairy farmer respondents were also not allocating these resources on a minimum-cost basis. However, the profit maximizing and least-cost criteria assume perfect knowledge, a risk-free environment and competitive markets. Improved information, farmer training and better infrastructure (roads and telecommunications) to promote competitive markets could help to enhance resource allocation decisions by dairy producers. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31710 Title: Choosing between the AIDS and Rotterdam models: A meat demand analysis case study <br/> <br/>Authors: Taljaard, P.R.; van Schalkwyk, H.D.; Alemu, Z.G. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Due to the inability of economic theory to choose ex ante between the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Rotterdam model, a non-nested test was used. The results of the non-nested test points to the Linearized-AIDS model applied to 31 years of meat consumption data in South Africa. When comparing the estimated demand relations of the two models, the LA/AIDS model also proved to be better fit for South African meat demand. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31709 Title: Analysis of the technical efficiency of rice farms in Ijesha Land of Osun State, Nigeria <br/> <br/>Authors: Tijani, A.A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This study estimated technical efficiencies on rice farms in Osun State, Nigeria, and identified some socioeconomic factors, which influence productive efficiency. These technical efficiencies were estimated using the stochastic frontier production function approach applied to primary data. A translog production function was used to represent the production frontier of the rice farms. The study showed that the levels of technical efficiency ranged from 29.4% to 98.2% with a mean of 86.6%, which suggests that average rice output falls 13.4% short of the maximum possible level. Therefore in the short run there is scope to increase technical efficiencies on rice farms in the study area. The study also showed that these efficiencies are positively and significantly correlated with the application of traditional preparation methods, and with off-farm income. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31713 Title: Testing for weak-form efficiency in South African futures market for wheat and sunflower seeds <br/> <br/>Authors: Phukubje, M.P.; Moholwa, M.B. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The deregulation of agricultural markets in South Africa led to the establishment of a futures market for agricultural products, which was opened in January 1995. Commodity futures markets should be efficient to play most effective role in price risk management. This paper tests for weak-form efficiency in the South African Future markets for wheat and sunflower seeds by examining the predictability of daily futures price changes. The results suggest that futures price changes for both wheat and sunflower seeds are partially predictable from past price information. The implication is that past price information does contain additional information that could be used to forecast the future price once the current future price is known. But when taking into account the brokerage costs and the time value of money, out-of-sample predictive performance of the model indicates that trading decisions based on the direction of predicted futures price changes do not lead to profitable trades for either crop. Hence, the evidence suggests that there is no strong support for weak-form inefficiency in South African futures markets for wheat and sunflower seeds. The results further suggest that there is no trend in market efficiency over time for wheat and sunflower seeds, except for the wheat December contract. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31712 Title: Smallholder farming styles and development policy in South Africa: The case of Dzindi Irrigation Scheme <br/> <br/>Authors: van Averbeke, W.; Mohamed, S.S. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Diversity among smallholders farming 1.28ha plots at Dzindi Irrigation Scheme in the Thulamela Local Municipality of Limpopo Province, South Africa is investigated by applying farming style theory. Farming styles refer to specific farming strategies, which are conscious responses of farmers to the prevailing ecological and socio-economic conditions. The specific objectives of the study were to identify and characterize styles of farming in the Dzindi community of smallholders, to provide an understanding of the different styles from a smallholder perspective, and to interpret the meaning of the findings for smallholder development policy. Data collection involved both quantitative and qualitative methods. Three main farming styles were identified, and in each of these farmers employed particular strategies, which were congruent with their farming objectives, and which represent different degrees of exposure to risk evidenced by the crop selection, the amount of land they planted, the service providers they used with specific reference to land preparation, the social networks they maintained, especially with regard to marketing produce, the labour they hired and the farming requisites they purchased and utilized. The findings suggested that the response by farmers in the different styles to contemporary agricultural and related policy aimed at their empowerment and commercialization in unlikely to be uniform, and this is expected to dilute the impact of policy measures in support of specific development trajectories. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31707 Title: Towards a broader understanding of South African consumer spending on meat <br/> <br/>Authors: Taljaard, P.R.; Jooste, A.; Asfaha, T.A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper analyses meat consumption trends in South Africa. Despite the fact that aggregate per capita meat consumption remained relatively constant during the last 34 years, significant changes were observed in the per capita consumption among different meat categories. By applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Johansen co integration approach to a conventional demand function, significant changes in the contributions of economic and non-economic factors towards meat demand were identified over time. From the analysis it is apparent that non-economic factors play a greater role in determining meat consumption in South Africa. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31708 Title: The comparative advantage of selected long-term crops in Lesotho <br/> <br/>Authors: Makosholo, M.L.; Jooste, A. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper evaluates the comparative economic advantage (CEA) of irrigated long-term crops (cherries, peaches, apples and asparagus) in the four agro-ecological zones of Lesotho based on analyses of profitability coefficients and domestic resource costs. The analysis was carried out using the net present value (NPV) approach. The CEA analysis yielded higher private returns relative to economic returns in the lowlands, Foothills, the Senqu River Valley and the Mountains of Lesotho for all the crops examined. In the lowlands zone all products have a RCR of lower than one indicating a comparative advantage. In the Foothills only apples and peaches were investigated, and both show a comparative advantage of equal strength. In the Senqu River Valley the result for apples and peaches are mixed, i.e. apples show a comparative advantage, whilst peaches show a comparative disadvantage. In the Mountain zone only apples have a comparative advantage. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted related to exchange rate changes, land and water prices, and threshold prices.