http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/36201 Search the Channel search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/simple-search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31644 Title: PRESERVING AGRICULTURAL LAND WITH FARMLAND ASSESSMENT: NEW JERSEY AS A CASE STUDY <br/> <br/>Authors: Parks, Peter J.; Quimio, Wilma Rose H. <br/> <br/>Abstract: A conceptual model links agricultural profits, capital gains, interest rates, and property taxes to the sale of agricultural land by profit-maximizing owners. The model motivates an empirical analysis of New Jersey data from 1949 to 1990. Results suggest that nonagricultural considerations may overpower the economic incentives provided by such policies as farmland assessment. Consequently, alternative policies (e.g., purchase of development rights and land use zoning) may be needed to sustain agriculture in rapidly urbanizing areas. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31645 Title: END MATERIAL <br/> <br/>Abstract: Includes: Guidelines for Manuscript Submission and Back Cover http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31646 Title: SPATIAL MARKET INTEGRATION: DEFINITION, THEORY, AND EVIDENCE <br/> <br/>Authors: McNew, Kevin <br/> <br/>Abstract: A point-space model of interregional trade is used to define market integration and to explore its implications for modeling spatial price relationships. This analysis indicates that spatial prices are related nonlinearly, contrary to much of the work on spatial price analysis which uses linear models. As an empirical example, corn market integration along the Mississippi River is examined during the Midwest flood of 1993. Higher transport costs during this period significantly reduced the extent of integration and thereby decreased excess demand shock transference across regions. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31647 Title: COVER and CONTENTS PAGES <br/> <br/>Abstract: Includes: Cover, title page and contents page http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31648 Title: SEAFOOD SAFETY PERCEPTIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON ANTICIPATED CONSUMPTION UNDER VARYING INFORMATION TREATMENTS <br/> <br/>Authors: Wessells, Cathy Roheim; Kline, Jeffrey; Anderson, Joan Gray <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper identifies factors that influence consumers' seafood safety perceptions and examines how these perceptions affect consumers' anticipated consumption when consumers are provided with additional information relevant to seafood. A recursive system of equations is specified describing consumers' safety perceptions as a function of past experience with seafood, recreational harvest activities, and risk-taking behavior, and describing the influence of safety perceptions on consumers' anticipated demand response to hypothetical information concerning seafood. A telephone survey of randomly selected Rhode Island consumers provided data for the analysis. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31649 Title: A NOTE ON NONLINEARITY BIAS AND DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE CVM: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGGREGATE BENEFITS ESTIMATION <br/> <br/>Authors: Souter, R.A.; Bowker, J.M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: It is a generally known statistical fact that the mean of a nonlinear function of a set of random variables is not equivalent to the function evaluated at the means of the variables. However, in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies a common practice is to calculate an overall mean (or median) by integrating over offer space (numerically or analytically) an estimated logit or probit function in which sample mean values for the concomitant variables are used. We demonstrate this procedure to be incorrect and we statically test the procedure against the correct method for nonlinear models. Using data resulting in a well-behaved logit model, we reject the hypothesis of congruence between the two means. Such a finding should be considered in future single response dichotomous choice CVM studies, particularly when aggregation is of interest. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31650 Title: THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT DECISIONS: THE CASE OF SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT <br/> <br/>Authors: Halstead, John M.; Park, William M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The issue of solid waste management has risen to national prominence in the last decade, fueled by increasing waste disposal costs and changing public attitudes. This situation presents a major opportunity for economists to use their applied microeconomics skills to assist state and local governments manage waste in a cost effective fashion. While findings from formal research efforts may ultimately make their way into the decision-making process, perhaps economists can play an even more significant role in emphasizing the importance of the most basic economic concepts and principles for sound decision making in solid waste management or the many other areas in which local public choices are made. These areas would include at least the following: opportunity cost, marginal analysis of costs and benefits, and the role of economic incentives. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31651 Title: DEMAND FOR PLANTS SOLD IN NORTH CAROLINA GARDEN CENTERS <br/> <br/>Authors: Abdelmagid, Banaga D.; Wohlgenant, Michael K.; Safley, Charles D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Demand for selected nursery plants sold in North Carolina (i.e., begonia, dianthus, geranium, impatiens, marigold, petunia, and vinca) was found to be affected more by prices than by income, demographic, and other variables. By using cross-sectional data, a modified AIDS model, incorporating demographic variables and quadratic income response, was estimated. Inverse Mills's ratios were also included in the model to correct for selectivity bias, resulting from zero purchases. Significant own-price elasticities ranged from -0.71 to -1.65, and income elasticities ranged from -0.78 to 0.41. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31652 Title: THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION OF AGRICULTURE IN DELAWARE <br/> <br/>Authors: Tytus, Peter J.; Hastings, Steven E.; Tanjuakio, Rodolfo V. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The decreasing share of production agriculture in the U.S. economy in general and Delaware in particular has raised questions about the amount of government resources being spent on the local agricultural sector. A basic question in the debate is: "What is the real economic contribution of agriculture?" This study looks at the economic role of agriculture in Delaware, presenting different perspectives of what agriculture is and what it contributes to the state economy. Based on three definitions of agriculture, the economic impacts as measured by shares to total employment, output, and value added were estimated using IMPLAN, an input-output modeling software. In each economic impact measure, the share of the local agricultural sector to the total Delaware economy ranged from around 2% to 6% in 1991. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31653 Title: SEARCH THEORY RISK PREFERENCE AND FARMLAND PRESERVATION <br/> <br/>Authors: Tavernier, Edmund M.; Li, Farong; Temel, Tugrul T. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper uses search theory to examine the role that risk preference (RP) plays in farmland preservation. Assuming that the distribution of the offer price is fixed, the analysis indicates that risk-averse agents have lower reservation prices than risk-neutral agents, and that agricultural land held by the former exits farming at a faster rate. The results also show that farmland preservation policies which increase reservation prices have a greater capitalization effect if agents are risk-loving, and that such policies, while effectively protecting the interest of land speculators, may be less effective in serving the needs of farming and farm-held open space. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31654 Title: EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY, AND SUSTAINABILITY <br/> <br/>Authors: Knapp, Keith C. <br/> <br/>Abstract: An OLG model with exhaustible resources and solar energy is developed, and equilibrium time paths are characterized numerically using recursive methods. For the parameter values considered, resource prices increase over time, and extractions, output, and utility decline over time until a steady-state is reached. Decreasing the intertemporal elasticity of substitution or raising consumers' subjective discount rate hastens exhaustion of the resource stock. Market equilibrium can result in much quicker use of the stock than social optimality under a constant discount rate, with consequent higher utility for early generations and lower utility for future generations in contrast to social optimality. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31655 Title: IMPROVING THE RELEVANCE OF RESEARCH ON PRICE FORECASTING AND MARKETING STRATEGIES <br/> <br/>Authors: Brorsen, B. Wade; Irwin, Scott H. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Agricultural economists' research on price forecasting and marketing strategies has been used little by those in the real world. We argue that fresh approaches to research are needed. First, we argue that we need to adopt a new theoretical paradigm, noisy rational expectations. This paradigm suggests that gains from using price forecasting models with public data or from using a marketing strategy are not impossible, but any gains are likely to be small. We need to conduct falsification tests; to perform confirmation and replication; to adjust research to reflect structural changes, such as increased contracting; and always to conduct statistical tests. We also provide a modest agenda for changing our research and extension programs. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31645 Title: END MATERIAL <br/> <br/>Abstract: Includes: Guidelines for Manuscript Submission and Back Cover http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31647 Title: COVER and CONTENTS PAGES <br/> <br/>Abstract: Includes: Cover, title page and contents page http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31651 Title: DEMAND FOR PLANTS SOLD IN NORTH CAROLINA GARDEN CENTERS <br/> <br/>Authors: Abdelmagid, Banaga D.; Wohlgenant, Michael K.; Safley, Charles D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Demand for selected nursery plants sold in North Carolina (i.e., begonia, dianthus, geranium, impatiens, marigold, petunia, and vinca) was found to be affected more by prices than by income, demographic, and other variables. By using cross-sectional data, a modified AIDS model, incorporating demographic variables and quadratic income response, was estimated. Inverse Mills's ratios were also included in the model to correct for selectivity bias, resulting from zero purchases. Significant own-price elasticities ranged from -0.71 to -1.65, and income elasticities ranged from -0.78 to 0.41. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31644 Title: PRESERVING AGRICULTURAL LAND WITH FARMLAND ASSESSMENT: NEW JERSEY AS A CASE STUDY <br/> <br/>Authors: Parks, Peter J.; Quimio, Wilma Rose H. <br/> <br/>Abstract: A conceptual model links agricultural profits, capital gains, interest rates, and property taxes to the sale of agricultural land by profit-maximizing owners. The model motivates an empirical analysis of New Jersey data from 1949 to 1990. Results suggest that nonagricultural considerations may overpower the economic incentives provided by such policies as farmland assessment. Consequently, alternative policies (e.g., purchase of development rights and land use zoning) may be needed to sustain agriculture in rapidly urbanizing areas. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31646 Title: SPATIAL MARKET INTEGRATION: DEFINITION, THEORY, AND EVIDENCE <br/> <br/>Authors: McNew, Kevin <br/> <br/>Abstract: A point-space model of interregional trade is used to define market integration and to explore its implications for modeling spatial price relationships. This analysis indicates that spatial prices are related nonlinearly, contrary to much of the work on spatial price analysis which uses linear models. As an empirical example, corn market integration along the Mississippi River is examined during the Midwest flood of 1993. Higher transport costs during this period significantly reduced the extent of integration and thereby decreased excess demand shock transference across regions. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31649 Title: A NOTE ON NONLINEARITY BIAS AND DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE CVM: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGGREGATE BENEFITS ESTIMATION <br/> <br/>Authors: Souter, R.A.; Bowker, J.M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: It is a generally known statistical fact that the mean of a nonlinear function of a set of random variables is not equivalent to the function evaluated at the means of the variables. However, in dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies a common practice is to calculate an overall mean (or median) by integrating over offer space (numerically or analytically) an estimated logit or probit function in which sample mean values for the concomitant variables are used. We demonstrate this procedure to be incorrect and we statically test the procedure against the correct method for nonlinear models. Using data resulting in a well-behaved logit model, we reject the hypothesis of congruence between the two means. Such a finding should be considered in future single response dichotomous choice CVM studies, particularly when aggregation is of interest. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31654 Title: EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCE ALLOCATION, INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY, AND SUSTAINABILITY <br/> <br/>Authors: Knapp, Keith C. <br/> <br/>Abstract: An OLG model with exhaustible resources and solar energy is developed, and equilibrium time paths are characterized numerically using recursive methods. For the parameter values considered, resource prices increase over time, and extractions, output, and utility decline over time until a steady-state is reached. Decreasing the intertemporal elasticity of substitution or raising consumers' subjective discount rate hastens exhaustion of the resource stock. Market equilibrium can result in much quicker use of the stock than social optimality under a constant discount rate, with consequent higher utility for early generations and lower utility for future generations in contrast to social optimality. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/31650 Title: THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT DECISIONS: THE CASE OF SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT <br/> <br/>Authors: Halstead, John M.; Park, William M. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The issue of solid waste management has risen to national prominence in the last decade, fueled by increasing waste disposal costs and changing public attitudes. This situation presents a major opportunity for economists to use their applied microeconomics skills to assist state and local governments manage waste in a cost effective fashion. While findings from formal research efforts may ultimately make their way into the decision-making process, perhaps economists can play an even more significant role in emphasizing the importance of the most basic economic concepts and principles for sound decision making in solid waste management or the many other areas in which local public choices are made. These areas would include at least the following: opportunity cost, marginal analysis of costs and benefits, and the role of economic incentives.