http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/34000 Search the Channel search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/simple-search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/10121 Title: A Bayesian approach towards facilitating climate change adaptation research on the South African agricultural sector <br/> <br/>Authors: Musango, J.K.; Peter, C. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Evaluating the range of proposed adaptation measures to combat the sensitivity of agriculture to climate change effects involves evaluating complex interactions between human and natural systems. Integrated strategy-making and implementation in the agricultural sector to reduce the risks posed by climate change requires the consideration of multiple, interdisciplinary factors and the sensitivities of their inter-relationships. Lack of information on the sensitivity of agricultural activities to climate change in Africa hampers climate change adaptation research on the region. In water scarce South Africa, the growth of the agricultural sector is threatened by projected decreases in water availability due to climate change. This paper shows how Bayesian networks may be used to facilitate cross-disciplinary participation in elucidating these sensitivities. Bayesian networks provide a graphical framework for mixing quantitative and qualitative information and can be characterised using information associated with varying degrees of uncertainty. This enables a variety of domain experts to test key driver-response interactions through sensitivity analysis and enables visualisation of the complex inter-relationships between inter-disciplinary variables resulting from the impacts of climate change scenarios on South African agriculture. The ability to represent the sensitivities between key variables for which varying degrees of data-scarcity and uncertainty occur provides agricultural sector researchers with a facilitation tool that may helps visualise and formulate climate change mitigation strategies. The results presented here illustrates the extreme sensitivity of water-scarce South African agricultural sector to projected climate change impacts and provides a framework in which tradeoffs between activities can be preliminarily assessed in strategy-making for adaptation. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/10122 Title: Agriculture and poverty: Farming for food or farming for money? <br/> <br/>Authors: Pauw, K.W. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The dualistic nature of the South African economy manifests itself to a large extent in the agricultural sector, where ownership and access to land was previously reserved and is still mainly controlled by white farmers. This has contributed to the huge disparities in the income levels of black and white agricultural households. In this paper two South African household surveys are used to analyse agricultural inequality using various decomposition techniques. It is found that inequalities within agriculture are higher and more pronounced along racial lines than inequalities among non-agricultural households. Agricultural inequalities also differ structurally from those in the rest of society and are explained largely by differences in the ownership of income-generating assets, and less so by racial wage inequalities. Furthermore, an analysis of agricultural poverty reveals extremely high poverty rates and meagre incomes among black subsistence and small-scale farmer households. These results have important implications for the type of transformation required in the South African agricultural sector, adding weight to the notion that commercialisation is crucial if agriculture is to contribute meaningfully to poverty reduction among the rural black community. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/10123 Title: What do we mean when we say casualisation of farm work is rising?: Evidence from fruit farms in the Western Cape <br/> <br/>Authors: Conradie, B.I. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Du Toit & Ally’s (2003) results on the casualisation of farm work in the Western Cape confirmed the worst fears of sociologists: Globalisation and/or labour laws increased casualisation in agriculture. New labour data and a study conducted in 1976 allow one to revisit the casualisation result for the table grape industry of the Hex River Valley. This paper resolves imprecise definitions of regular versus permanent status, and of casual versus seasonal status. It also examines casualisation and job shedding. Results show a decrease in the share of seasonal work and no change in the casual component of seasonal work. The job status of most farm women in the Valley improved as a result of legislative changes implemented since 1994. Outsourcing is present but insignificant at this point. On the whole data for the table grape industry of the Hex River Valley does not support the hypothesis that globalisation and labour market reform caused dramatic increases in casualisation. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/10124 Title: Agricultural cooperatives II: Can they facilitate access of small-scale farmers in South Africa to input and product markets? <br/> <br/>Authors: Ortmann, G.F.; King, R.P. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The objective of this research is to investigate whether agricultural cooperatives can facilitate smallholder farmer access to input and product markets. Farmers in two case study communal areas of KwaZulu-Natal face high transaction costs as reflected primarily in their low levels of education and literacy, lack of market information, insecure property rights, poor road and communication infrastructure, and long distances to markets. Analysis of the reasons why cooperatives were originally established in various parts of the world suggests that most of the causes (such as poverty, market failure and high transaction costs) also apply to the study farmers, as do the seven international principles of cooperation. Smallholder farmers in both case study regions have the potential to grow high-value crops such as vegetables, fruit and cut flowers. In the supply chain from farm to market, the optimum boundary for each organization involved in the chain (e.g. cooperative and investor-oriented firm) depends on the minimum operational and transaction costs for each business. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/10125 Title: Quantifying the impact of phytosanitary standards with specific reference to MRLs on the trade flow of South African avocados to the EU <br/> <br/>Authors: Scheepers, S.; Jooste, A.; Alemu, Z.G. <br/> <br/>Abstract: In this study a gravity model was used to investigate the impact of country specific MRLs that are more stringent than the MRLs set by CODEX on avocado exports by South Africa to the EU with specific reference to Prochloraz. The results revealed that the more stringent Prochloraz MRLs indeed have an impact on avocado exports to the EU. The simulation results show that the revenue foregone due to the more stringent Prochloraz MRLs is US$15.27 million. In relative terms this is significant, and should the Prochloraz MRLs be relaxed to the CODEX levels the contribution of the avocado industry to the gross domestic value of agricultural products would increase significantly. Furthermore, several studies have revealed the potentially negative impacts of abnormal levels of Prochloraz. The question arises why there are anomalies in the application of Prochloraz MRLs between countries and whether the CODEX MRL already account for these negative impacts. In depth analysis should be done with respect to the anomalies prevailing for Prochloraz MRLs to provide a proper scientific basis for applying them. Other recommendations are that much more attention should be given to the development of the national market for avocados and that other markets than the EU market should be explored for exports. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/10126 Title: Nutrient elasticities among Nigerian households differentiated by income <br/> <br/>Authors: Akinleye, S.O.; Rahji, M.A.Y. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Food calorie intake has been found to have a strong empirical linkage with both human health and productivity. In a study to determine the probable influence of price and income changes on the availability of food nutrients to Nigerian households segmented by income, demand elasticities were obtained for survey respondents and the nutritional effects of changes arising from changes in income and prices were computed using both the AIDS methodology and a technique developed by Huang. The findings show that guinea corn is the food that would have the greatest implications for the nutrient status of low income households. Millet, guinea corn and maize and rice, beans and maize respectively are the food items of note for the households whose heads earn average and high incomes. The study concludes with the implications of the findings on the different income groups and the likely applications of the methodology used to derive nutrient elasticities.