http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/33936 Search the Channel search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/simple-search http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9497 Title: Grain-supply response in Ethiopia: An error-correction approach <br/> <br/>Authors: Alemu, Z.G.; Oosterhuizen, K.; van Schalkwyk, H.D. <br/> <br/>Abstract: This paper quantifies the responsiveness of producers of teff, wheat, maize and sorghum to incentives using an error-correction model (ECM). It is found that planned supply of these crops is positively affected by own price, negatively by prices of substitute crops and variously by structural breaks related to policy changes and the occurrence of natural calamities. It has found significant long-run price elasticities for all crop types and insignificant short-run price elasticities for all crops but maize. Higher and significant long-run price elasticities as compared to lower and insignificant short-run price elasticities are attributable to various factors, namely structural constraints, the theory of supply and the conviction that farmers respond when they are certain that price changes are permanent. The paper concludes that farmers do respond to incentive changes. Thus attempts, which directly or indirectly tax agriculture with the belief that the sector is non-responsive to incentives, harm its growth and its contribution to growth in other sectors of the economy. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9498 Title: Measuring the agribusiness decision environment: Constructing an agribusiness confidence index for South Africa <br/> <br/>Authors: Esterhuizen, D.; van Rooyen, C.J. <br/> <br/>Abstract: South African agribusinesses are experiencing far reaching changes. Economists have developed indicators, generally known as indexes, to measure relative change in the industry. In this article the methodology to construct a business confidence index for agribusiness in South Africa is discussed. The objective of such an index is to determine the business confidence of agribusinesses as accurately as possible. Some 80 agribusinesses in South Africa are at present participating in the AGRIBUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX. For the first quarter of 2002 the index points to a 20% improvement in the business confidence of South African agribusinesses compared to the same period the year before, while in the second quarter the index was up 14% on the previous year. This increase in confidence goes hand in hand with some other positive trends in the agricultural sector of South Africa regarding competitiveness and investment. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9499 Title: A theoretical perspective on agribusiness and ethics in a South African context <br/> <br/>Authors: Kirsten, J. <br/> <br/>Abstract: In my presidential address in 2002 I made the point that there is a growing need to make some adaptations to the neo-classical foundations of agricultural economics if we as agricultural economists want to become useful in making a contribution to the empowerment process in agriculture. I expressed the need for much more interaction and engagement with other disciplines in the social sciences if we want to play a significant role in addressing the real challenges facing agriculture in South Africa. Some new values and understanding of the principles of humanity and dignity is urgently needed. The theme of this conference provides an ideal opportunity to take this argument and the case I made for cross-disciplinarity a bit further. Last year I argued that agricultural economists need to utilise the strengths of sociology, anthropology and political analysis in order to be better equipped to tackle the challenge of black empowerment in South African agriculture. This year I will show how we need these disciplines and also philosophy if we want to address ‘ethics’ in business. The point that was made throughout my earlier paper is that economic theory sacrifices far too much relevance in its pursuit of ever-greater rigour. Given the challenges facing the agricultural sector in Africa, we need to see much stronger efforts to integrate the building of theory in economics with the study of reality. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9500 Title: Opportunistic behaviour by private irrigators within a capacity-sharing regime <br/> <br/>Authors: de Lange, W.J.; Vink, N. <br/> <br/>Abstract: The concept of capacity-sharing (as a specific type of demand-orientated water management strategy) is a relatively newcomer on the South African water management regime and much debate is currently under way regarding the viability of the concept for the South African context. One of the main features is that it decentralises and integrates water management to a much greater degree than state-dominated management regimes. However, as the concept of capacity-sharing allows a greater degree of decision-making autonomy to the private decision-maker, the question could be asked to what extent the management of a capacity-sharing regime would be exposed to opportunistic behaviour from private irrigators. If it is heavily exposed, there are considerable scope for opportunistic decision-making behaviour under private decision-makers and therefore problems of moral hazard / adverse selection and rent seeking could present itself. Therefore, the question arises what safety features do capacity sharing present to confine possible opportunistic decision-making practices. This article discusses two areas within a capacity-sharing regime that are likely to be exposed to opportunistic decision-making behaviour. Possible safety-features from capacity sharing to account for this type of behaviour are identified and discussed briefly. This article concludes with the notion that capacity sharing does feature some properties that could minimise opportunistic behaviour from private decision-makers. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9501 Title: An analysis of factors contributing to the use of an income equalisation deposit scheme by commercial farmers in South Africa <br/> <br/>Authors: Lishman, J.-L.; Nieuwoudt, W.L. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Recent research suggests that an Income Equalisation Deposit (IED) scheme could be a feasible new risk management tool for commercial farmers in South Africa. This prompted a study of practicing consultants’ (tax experts) views on determining what types of farmers would be likely to use the scheme. During 2000, a postal survey of 24 consultants was conducted mainly in KwaZulu-Natal, and in the Maize Triangle and surrounding areas. Each consultant was to review nine scenarios (eight plus a control, giving 192 observations) and decide whether they would recommend an IED scheme for each scenario. A statistical experimental design was used to structure the scenarios, allowing for main and interaction effects between variables that could influence the potential use of an IED scheme. Discriminant analysis revealed that, ceteris paribus, farmers with higher annual net farm incomes (>R300,000), lower debt/asset ratios (<15%), more variable net farm incomes, and less off-farm income would most likely use an IED scheme. In terms of ranking, ceteris paribus, high risk maize farmers, intermediate risk maize farmers and high risk livestock farmers are more likely to use an IED scheme than are low risk maize farmers, low and intermediate risk livestock farmers and diversified farmers. These results support the use of an IED scheme as a risk management tool as higher risk farmers are more likely to make use of the scheme. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9502 Title: Factors affecting the loan status of sugarcane farmers using a graduated mortgage loan repayment scheme in KwaZulu-Natal <br/> <br/>Authors: Mashatola, M.C.; Darroch, M.A.G. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Factors affecting whether or not 83 medium-scale sugarcane farmers using a graduated mortgage loan repayment scheme in KwaZulu-Natal were current or in arrears on loan repayments as at 31 March 2001 were analysed using a logit model. Results show that the estimated probability of a farmer in the scheme being current on loan repayments was higher for clients with higher levels of average annual farm gross turnover relative to loan size, and for clients with access to substantive off-farm income. This suggests that farm size (proxied by annual gross turnover) does matter when policymakers in South Africa consider future similar schemes designed to improve access to commercial farmland by people that previously could not buy farmland. Access to off-farm income could also be considered as a criterion in selecting potential farmers for such schemes, as it helps to provide additional liquidity to fund future operations and debt repayments. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/9503 Title: Fertilizer trade and pricing in Uganda <br/> <br/>Authors: Omamo, S.W. <br/> <br/>Abstract: Liberalized fertilizer markets in eastern Africa typically deliver fertilizer to smallholder farming regions at prices that render its use unprofitable. Simultaneously, faced with little demand for fertilizer in these regions, fertilizer traders appear unwilling to invest in measures that might reduce farm-gate prices. A basic question throughout the region is therefore how to cost-effectively increase smallholders’ access to fertilizer, under conditions of liberalized and privatised trade in the input. This paper explores that question for Uganda using data from a wide-ranging study of Uganda’s fertilizer sub-sector. The prevailing system of fertilizer procurement and distribution is found to imply a market structure dominated by retail-level trade, high prices, and low net margins. The study concludes that there is no inherent pressures in the extant system of fertilizer procurement and distribution toward development of a wholesaling backbone that might allow capture of scale economies. But with imaginative and sustained investments in institutional innovation and strengthening, there is scope to reduce prices and increase net trading margins.